Game Preview: Detroit @ Sox GM 3

Maroth (3-0, 4.69) vs. Tavarez (1-4, 6.60)
7P ESPN HD Fenway

According to my pre-series calculations, this game could be decided long after the starters leave the game.

Maroth may be 3-0, but his ERA tells the true story- he has pitched much worse than his record indicates. As in, he's allowed at least two runs or more in six of his seven starts. What, that's not so bad you say? Well in one of those starts he gave up three runs, two others he allowed four, and in another he surrendered five runs in seven innings.

In his favor the Tigers score 6 1/2 runs for every game he starts, so he's got that going for him.

Tavarez goes Maroth one better, though: he's allowed at least two earned runs in all six of his starts, two games with three, two games allowing four runs, and one stinker when he gave up six runs in 4.2 innings. Although he has pitched decent at times, he hasn't benefited from near the run support that Maroth has (Boston avgs. 3.5 runs/start), therefore the lousier record.

Bottom line is this should be a slugfest that will be decided in the late innings, unless one of the two starters is exceptionally bad before that.

Go Sox!