Series Preview: Detroit @ Sox

Detroit Tigers (23-13)
AL CENT: Up 1.5 gms STRK:
AVG: .272 (4th in AL) ERA: 4.45 (6th)

Pitching Matchups:
GM1: Robertson (3-2, 3.35) vs. Matsuzaka (4-2, 4.59)
GM2: Verlander (3-1, 2.83) vs. Wakefield (4-3, 1.79)
GM3: Maroth (3-0, 4.69) vs. Tavarez (1-4, 6.60)
GM4: Durbin (3-1, 5.08) vs. Schilling (4-1, 3.63)

KEY PLAYERS:

• Magglio Ordonez: .344, 7HR, 34 RBI- the former Chisox is having a monster year for Detroit, leading the team in avg, homers & ribbies, OB%, SLG%, and doubles; Maggs is 5th in the AL in average and second in RBIs. Like I said-monster year
• Ivan Rodriguez: .238/3/15- the artist formerly known as Pudge better get back on the juice; he is currently hitting 65 points below his career average
• Gary Sheffield: .240/6/17/31R- the free-swinging outfielder is in his first season with Detroit after leaving the Stanks in the offseason. He got off to a frigid start, batting just .200 in April, but has heated up lately, batting .325 with four homers and nine ribbies in May
• Curtis Granderson: .279/6/18- I fell in love with this speedy outfielder last postseason, and the kid has continued to impress this year. He possesses the rare combination of speed & power, but he's got to cut down on his strikeouts (36 in 37 gms)
• Todd Jones: 13 saves, 2.50 ERA- the ancient closer is still racking up the saves, even with Joel Zumaya out of the picture

The Tigers stumbled out of the gate this season-perhaps in part due to the postseason hangover effect- but have been on a roll her in May. Detroit has won 9 of 11 games in May and 11 of its last 15 overall to take over first place in the rugged AL Central and the second-best record in the AL, behind Boston.

So wouldn't you know the Sox have to take face them in a long 4-game series to open the 10-game homestand right when the team is starting to hit its 2006 American League pennant-winning stride.

One thing in Boston's favor is Detroit's flamethrowing reliever, Joel Zumaya, is on the DL with a ligament injury, so they won't have to worry about seeing him late in games this time. Plus Kenny the Cheatin Gambler Rogers is still out, so they won't have to figure out how to hit a pinetar-laden curveball. But Detroit is one team in the AL that can match Boston, pitching-wise, and this series should be a real test of how Boston matches up against a World Series-caliber squad.

Here's my *guaranteed game-by-game breakdown, and my *always reliable series prediction: (results in no way guaranteed or reliable)

Game 1 would be an excellent pitching matchup on MLB 07; hard-throwing lefty Nate Robertson, who won a Game 1 of the ALCS last season, will square off against Dice-K. Robertson is coming off a a rocky start against Seattle, when he gave up 10 hits and six runs in 4 2/3 innings of a 9-2 loss to the Mariners, and he has allowed eight runs and 17 hits in two May starts.

Matsuzaka meanwhile is coming off a 5-hit, 1-run gem in Toronto last Wednesday, and he had much better control than he had exhibited in previous starts. Like the start before Toronto, when he allowed seven runs in five innings in Boston's 8-7 comeback win over the Mariners on May 3rd.

The way I look at this one is, whichever Dice-K shows up will determine who wins this one. If it's the dominant, controlled finesse Diceman, Sox should be able to crack Robertson and take this game. But if the Tigers get on base and Matsuzaka could get more rattled than Tom Sizemore on a job interview, the advantage falls squarely to Detroit. MY PICK: Sox win

Game 2 features a total contrast in styles on the mound: big young righty Justin Verlander vs. crafty veteran knuckleballer Tim Wakefield. Verlander is picking up right where he left off last season, when he went 17-9 in the regular season and won two more in the postseason. He is currently 9th in the AL in ERA.

And we all know who's 1st- Wake, the crafty old vet. Something's gotta give in this one, and I have a feeling it might be Wake's 2-game winning streak. MY PICK: Tigers

Game 3 (ESPN) could get ugly, with the lefty Mike Maroth matching up against Gascan Tavarez. Although Maroth is 3-0, his high ERA is a sign that he has received bou coup run support; indeed the Tigers score 6 1/2 runs per every Maroth start and have won all seven games he has started this year, and Maroth has allowed 3+ runs in four of those starts.

Tavarez is coming off a nightmare outing against Baltimore when he allowed 10 hits and five runs in five innings, raising his ERA to 6.60 and lowering his record to 1-4. Anything can happen when Julie takes the mound, from a quality start to a nuclear implosion. Either way, both starters should be long gone by the time this one's decided, leaving the game in the hands of the bullpens. Advantage, Sox. MY PICK: Sox win late

Game 4 looks like a mismatch at first glance, but look closer and you'll see that Chad Durbin, the 7-year vet playing for his 4th team has pitched well in place of Rogers. After allowing 16 runs on 20 hits including five home runs in his first 13 innings this year, he has settled down since his last start of April; in that game against the Chisox he threw 8 innings of 3-hit shutout ball with nine Ks and no walks in a 6-2 Detroit win, and since then he has only given up six runs and 16 hits in 17.1 May innings, with two wins and an ND.

Schill has won four games in a row but is coming off a shaky outing in which he gave up nine hits and four runs to Baltimore in 5.1 innings of a 13-4 Boston win. Although he has been winning, he has been less-than-dominant for the most part to say the least. But as we all know, never count out the ace when he gets between those white lines. The ace should beat the fill-in. MY PICK: Sox win

According to my incredible math skills, I have Boston taking 3 of 4 in this series, depending on if which Dice-K shows up and how long it takes Julie to go all Nuke Laloosh on the hill. Either way it should be a great series, a real test to see if Boston's championship aspirations are real or not.